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Abstract The cold point tropopause, the minimum temperature within the tropical upper troposphere‐lower stratosphere region (UTLS), significantly impacts Earth's climate by influencing the amount of water vapor entering the lower stratosphere. Understanding which mechanisms are most important in setting the cold point temperature and height may help us better predict how it will change in a future warmed climate. In this analysis we evaluate two mechanisms that may influence the cold point—cold point‐overshooting convection and the radiative lofting of thin cirrus near the cold point—during boreal winter by comparing 30‐day global storm‐resolving model (GSRM) simulations from the winter phase of the DYAMOND initiative to satellite observations. GSRMs have explicit deep convection and sufficiently fine grid spacings to simulate convective overshoots and UTLS cirrus, making them promising tools for this purpose. We find that the GSRMs reproduce the observed distribution of cold point‐overshooting convection but do not simulate enough cirrus capable of radiative lofting near the cold point. Both the models and observations show a strong relationship between areas of frequent cold point overshoots and colder cold points, suggesting that cold point‐overshooting convection has a notable influence on the mean cold point. However, we find little evidence that the radiative lofting of cold point cirrus substantially influences the cold point. Cold point‐overshooting convection alone cannot explain all variations in the cold point across different GSRMs or regions; future studies using longer GSRM simulations that consider longer‐term UTLS processes are needed to fully understand what sets the cold point. 

Abstract. Aerosol interactions with clouds represent a significant uncertainty in our understanding of the Earth system. Deep convective clouds may respond to aerosol perturbations in several ways that have proven difficult to elucidate with observations. Here, we leverage the two busiest maritime shipping lanes in the world, which emit aerosol particles and their precursors into an otherwise relatively clean tropical marine boundary layer, to make headway on the influence of aerosol on deep convective clouds. The recent 7-fold change in allowable fuel sulfur by the International Maritime Organization allows us to test the sensitivity of the lightning to changes in ship plume aerosol number-size distributions. We find that, across a range of atmospheric thermodynamic conditions, the previously documented enhancement of lightning over the shipping lanes has fallen by over 40 %. The enhancement is therefore at least partially aerosol-mediated, a conclusion that is supported by observations of droplet number at cloud base, which show a similar decline over the shipping lane. These results have fundamental implications for our understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions, suggesting that deep convective clouds are impacted by the aerosol number distribution in the remote marine environment. 

Abstract Changes in tropical deep convection with global warming are a leading source of uncertainty for future climate projections. A comparison of the responses of active sensor measurements of cloud ice to interannual variability and next-generation global storm-resolving model (also known ask-scale models) simulations to global warming shows similar changes for events with the highest column-integrated ice. The changes reveal that the ice loading decreases outside the most active convection but increases at a rate of several percent per Kelvin surface warming in the most active convection. Disentangling thermodynamic and vertical velocity changes shows that the ice signal is strongly modulated by structural changes of the vertical wind field towards an intensification of strong convective updrafts with warming, suggesting that changes in ice loading are strongly influenced by changes in convective velocities, as well as a path toward extracting information about convective velocities from observations. 

Abstract Water isotopes are tracers of convective processes and are often used as proxies for past precipitation. These applications require a better understanding of the impact of convective processes on the isotopic composition of water vapor and precipitation. One way to advance this understanding is to analyze the isotopic mesoscale variations during organized convective systems such as tropical cyclones or squall lines. The goal of this study is to understand these isotopic mesoscale variations with particular attention to isotopic signals in near‐surface vapor and precipitation that may be present in observations and in paleoclimate proxies. With this aim, we run cloud resolving model simulations in radiative‐convective equilibrium in which rotation or wind shear is added, allowing us to simulate tropical cyclones or squall lines. The simulations capture the robust aspects of mesoscale isotopic variations in observed tropical cyclones and squall lines. We interpret these variations using a simple water budget model for the sub‐cloud layer of different parts of the domain. We find that rain evaporation and rain‐vapor diffusive exchanges are the main drivers of isotopic depletion within tropical cyclones and squall lines. Horizontal advection spreads isotopic anomalies, thus reshaping the mesoscale isotopic pattern. This study contributes to our understanding of mesoscale isotopic variability and provides physical arguments supporting the interpretation of paleoclimate isotopic archives in tropical regions in terms of past cyclonic activity. 

Sub-cloud rain evaporation in the trade wind region significantly influences the boundary layer mass and energy budgets. Parameterizing it is, however, difficult due to the sparsity of well-resolved rain observations and the challenges of sampling short-lived marine cumulus clouds. In this study, sub-cloud rain evaporation is analyzed using a steady-state, one-dimensional model that simulates changes in drop sizes, relative humidity, and rain isotopic composition. The model is initialized with relative humidity, raindrop size distributions, and water vapor isotope ratios (e.g., δDv, δ18Ov) sampled by the NOAA P3 aircraft during the Atlantic Tradewind Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign (ATOMIC), which was part of the larger EUREC4A (ElUcidating the RolE of Clouds–Circulation Coupling in ClimAte) field program. The modeled surface precipitation isotope ratios closely match the observations from EUREC4A ground-based and ship-based platforms, lending credibility to our model. The model suggests that 63 % of the rain mass evaporates in the sub-cloud layer across 22 P3 cases. The vertical distribution of the evaporated rain flux is top heavy for a narrow (σ) raindrop size distribution (RSD) centered over a small geometric mean diameter (Dg) at the cloud base. A top-heavy profile has a higher rain-evaporated fraction (REF) and larger changes in the rain deuterium excess (d=δD-8×δ18O) between the cloud base and the surface than a bottom-heavy profile, which results from a wider RSD with larger Dg. The modeled REF and change in d are also more strongly influenced by cloud base Dg and σ rather than the concentration of raindrops. The model results are accurate as long as the variations in the relative humidity conditions are accounted for. Relative humidity alone, however, is a poor indicator of sub-cloud rain evaporation. Overall, our analysis indicates the intricate dependence of sub-cloud rain evaporation on both thermodynamic and microphysical processes in the trade wind region. 

Abstract The vertical profile of clear-sky radiative cooling places important constraints on the vertical structure of convection and associated clouds. Simple theory using the cooling-to-space approximation is presented to indicate that the cooling rate in the upper troposphere should increase with surface temperature. The theory predicts how the cooling rate depends on lapse rate in an atmosphere where relative humidity remains approximately a fixed function of temperature. Radiative cooling rate is insensitive to relative humidity because of cancellation between the emission and transmission of radiation by water vapor. This theory is tested with one-dimensional radiative transfer calculations and radiative-convective equilibrium simulations. For climate simulations that produce an approximately moist adiabatic lapse rate, the radiative cooling profile becomes increasingly top-heavy with increasing surface temperature. If the temperature profile warms more slowly than a moist adiabatic profile in mid-troposphere, then the cooling rate in the upper troposphere is reduced and that in the lower troposphere is increased. This has important implications for convection, clouds and associated deep and shallow circulations. 

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into shallow marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation and reduce the amount of energy absorbed by the climate system. From the physical science perspective, the consensus of a broad international group of scientists is that the viability of MCB will ultimately depend on whether observations and models can robustly assess the scale-up of local-to-global brightening in today’s climate and identify strategies that will ensure an equitable geographical distribution of the benefits and risks associated with projected regional changes in temperature and precipitation. To address the physical science knowledge gaps required to assess the societal implications of MCB, we propose a substantial and targeted program of research—field and laboratory experiments, monitoring, and numerical modeling across a range of scales. 

{"Abstract":["This archive includes data and ipython notebooks to create the figures for the manuscript "Response of water isotopes in precipitation to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model" submitted to Journal of Climate in August 2022.<\/p>\n\nModel output from WRFwiso and iCAM is in data.zip (saved as monthly means)<\/p>\n\nNotebooks and python modules are in scripts.zip<\/p>\n\nRequired python packages (all included in environment.yml):<\/p>\n\nnumpy<\/li>matplotlib<\/li>netcdf4<\/li>basemap<\/li>scipy<\/li>wrf-python<\/li>windspharm<\/li>metpy<\/li>intergrid<\/li>cmocean<\/li><\/ul>"]} 

Abstract Satellite observations of tropical maritime convection indicate an afternoon maximum in anvil cloud fraction that cannot be explained by the diurnal cycle of deep convection peaking at night. We use idealized cloud-resolving model simulations of single anvil cloud evolution pathways, initialized at different times of the day, to show that tropical anvil clouds formed during the day are more widespread and longer lasting than those formed at night. This diurnal difference is caused by shortwave radiative heating, which lofts and spreads anvil clouds via a mesoscale circulation that is largely absent at night, when a different, longwave-driven circulation dominates. The nighttime circulation entrains dry environmental air that erodes cloud top and shortens anvil lifetime. Increased ice nucleation in more turbulent nighttime conditions supported by the longwave cloud-top cooling and cloud-base heating dipole cannot compensate for the effect of diurnal shortwave radiative heating. Radiative–convective equilibrium simulations with a realistic diurnal cycle of insolation confirm the crucial role of shortwave heating in lofting and sustaining anvil clouds. The shortwave-driven mesoscale ascent leads to daytime anvils with larger ice crystal size, number concentration, and water content at cloud top than their nighttime counterparts. Significance Statement Deep convective activity and rainfall peak at night over the tropical oceans. However, anvil clouds that originate from the tops of deep convective clouds reach their largest extent in the afternoon hours. We study the underlying physical mechanisms that lead to this discrepancy by simulating the evolution of anvil clouds with a high-resolution model. We find that the absorption of sunlight by ice crystals lofts and spreads the daytime anvil clouds over a larger area, increasing their lifetime, changing their properties, and thus influencing their impact on climate. Our findings show that it is important not only to simulate the correct onset of deep convection but also to correctly represent anvil cloud evolution for skillful simulations of the tropical energy balance.